As the Ukraine comes nearer to
becoming a strong member of the European Union, negotiations begin to go south
between the EU and Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine’s president. This is something
that angers the citizens of Ukraine, for they see the benefits in being such
members of the organization and urge their leader to pursue a position within
the EU. This weekend peaceful protests took place outside of the Ukrainian parliament
to sway President Yanukovych into making greater attempts to negotiate with the
EU, it was quickly seen as a sign of an uprising and the President ordered for
the protesters to be removed from the area and beaten. There is footage of peaceful
students and reporters being hit with iron rods by thug like men in all black,
not the police force, for it was documented that President Yanukovych did not initially trust the police to handle such a task because he feared that they themselves
would rise up against the government as well. As a result Yanukovych turned to sponsor
a group of men without ties to the government to deal with what he thought was
the beginning of an uprising in the Ukraine, but later gave control back to the police when order was needed to be restored. The Ukraine had not seen that much
violence on its own population in all the years that it has been a free state. After
the protests were broken up this weekend, the citizens of the Ukraine quickly began
to reform the protests in front of the parliament today, against direct order
from President Yanukovych who banned protests after the violence that took
place at the initial protests. The people of the Ukraine are currently peaceful
but are beginning to be more violent as the days progress, to the point where
there has been serious fear that they would make an attempt to overthrow the parliament
entirely. As this situation unfolds the United States Government is watching
carefully and warning President Yanukovych to stop the violence he is acting on
his people.
This
situation poses a few areas of thought for the current class topic of “terrorism”
and “insurgency” for we see the likelihood of both sides of this conflict to engage
in one, if not both of these affairs. When President Yanukovych used men who
were not a part of his military or police force to instill fear in the
protesters this was an early form of terrorism on his own people. From this we
see the possible birth of further actions taking place by the use of these
state sponsored actors in order to keep the protesters afraid of rallying.
However, the main area we see terrorism and insurgency is in the evolution of
these protests. They have the strong possibility to evolve into a revolution
against the Ukrainian government, which could result in terrorist type actions
to take place in order to influence the government to listen to the people, or
possibly even put new members in who will listen to the people’s desires. Is it
possible that this situation could escalate to the point of revolution or
insurgency? Or do you think that this situation can be resolved peacefully with
an outcome that benefits the Ukraine and keeps them as a whole?
Articles to consider:
Sited for picture:
"Protest in Ukraine." gdb.rferl.org. N.p., n.d. Web. 2 Dec. 2013.
I think a lot of how peaceful this event will be resolved will come down to the participation of the EU, and wether they will endorse the actions of the protestors or not. EU rhetoric states that they should, and likely will. However it's all up in the air as to how the EU will go about supporting the movement. Does the EU want to further negotiations with Ukraine or are the new events evidence that the country is not ready to be a member state of the EU?
ReplyDeleteAnother viable option the EU could take is to continue to further their cause and better relations with Ukraine. The possible actions of the country may due to pressure from Russia and if thats the case then the EU would likely follow down a more receptive path.
If the incident stays isolated then violence may increase as it will be easy to repress. If the rest of the nation decides to protest in some fashion or another and guarantee poor upcoming electoral results. Or to the point of shutting down the country by refusing to participate in daily life and functions of society needed for government survival. Then there could be a peaceful solution.
I agree with Harshaw, that the government has the ability to prevent revolution and in a scenario, which may even be beneficial. I definitely believe that if the protesters demands are not met or even addressed, that this situation could escalate into a revolution. Using state sponsored terrorism could stop or even promote more protests. The situation in Ukraine is extremely volatile and I am curious to see how it will play out. The EU I do not believe will get involved with the protests in Ukraine.
ReplyDeleteIt is important to note why Viktor Yanukovych refuses to sign any agreement with the EU, a development that many citizens believe would be the right move for Ukraine. I believe that although Yanukovych faces immense pressure from the opposition and protestors to establish closer ties with the EU, the repercussions from Russia for doing so could possibly outweigh the benefits and act as a deterrent for him. With the international attention these protests have garnered it would be difficult for the state to use terrorism without being explicitly condemned-it is, after all, a self-proclaimed peaceful democracy. I predict that the status-quo will be upheld and the protestors will eventually drop their efforts and will have to wait until the next round of elections to pressure politicians into establishing ties with the EU.
ReplyDeleteI believe that the situation in Ukraine is completely dictated by the government. If the government really wanted to it could suppress and revolution or potential revolution in it's borders. Russia has far to strong of an influence over Yanukovych and the EU does not have the authority to do anything. I think this article represents how far Ukraine is from true democracy, but the people seem eager to get it.
ReplyDeleteWell due to the actions of the president it is clear that the president of Ukraine does not want to be a part of the European Union...one of the main criteria to become a European Union member state is to guarantee democracy, rule of law, human rights and protection of minorities...does not seem like Ukraine is on track to fulfill one of the basic requirements for membership or even a partnership for that matter. I cannot say that I would be shocked if a revolution occurred because of this. There is obviously mass frustration from the people and Yanukovych is clearly concerned that the military and police will defect. Both key ingredients in a revolution or at least a change in power. I am curious to see how this turns out.
ReplyDeleteAccording to Crane Brinton's theory of revolutions, the case of Ukraine is a recipe for revolution. Three causes of Brinton's theory involve the intellectuals transferring their allegiance to the opposition group. Intellectuals, according to Brinton are scholars and thinkers, but in this sense, the intellectuals would be the students, which makes up a large portion of the protesters. The next cause in this theory, which seems imminent in Ukraine, is the government's lack of response to the needs of society. And finally, as Morgan pointed out, Yanukovych is concerned with the potential military and police defection to the opposition which is the final cause of revolution according to Brinton.
ReplyDeleteI think this could definitely escalate to the point of revolution considering it did in 2004-2005. However, the Orange Revolution was during election time while the economic and political conditions were poor, and the rigged outcome was the final straw. The issue in this post is that Yanukovych wasn't going to sign the European Association Agreement anyways, showing the public he wasn't going to do what they wanted.This event shows dislike for Yakunovych has been boiling, as can be seen by his trying to destroy the opposition party BYuT.
ReplyDelete