I am sure that the majority of us are familiar with the China/Japan territorial dispute over the Senkaku Islands, that both nations have laid claim to. They are uninhabited Islands that pose no real value other than maritime control and strategic positioning near each other's borders. This is not a recent conflict and it has been going on for many years, however there has been some recent escalation of force. Recently Beijing imposed an air defense identification zone (adiz) over an area that included the Senkaku Islands. Neither side has any intention of giving in, which is why earlier this month vice president Joe Biden visited Japan to give support in the escalation shown by China. This is very similar to some themes that we have discussed in class, for example nations testing each other's resolve. This is a real world example in which I believe Japan and China are seeing how far each other will go before there is conflict. There have been many altercations in this zone from ship collisions and activists being taken into custody, but officials are fearing of an accidental confrontation that would lead to war. This region is at the moment very unstable and having interests in the form of allies (Japan/South Korea) the U.S. is committed to maintaing the stays quo.
This is a prime example to see how nations are constantly testing one another too see how viable their threats are. There are no mistakes in the international community and this response from China could be the result of American B-52's flying through Chinese restricted airspace. It is a game of strengths and weaknesses. I am curious to see how this situation will unfold in the future and what it means for our current interests in the pacific theatre.
"The fact that China's announcement has caused confusion and increased the risk of accidents only further underscores the validity of concerns and the need for China to rescind the procedures," Jen Psaki, the chief spokeswoman for the state department
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An Air Defense Identification Zone seems weird to me in this context. I understand the purpose of placing one on your own territory i.e. the US placing one around the border of the US because it is universally recognized as ours, but I don't get why Beijing can just impose an ADIZ on disputed land that both Japan and China claim to be their own, and territory on which Japan has also placed an AIDZ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Karte_ADIZ_Japan_und_ADIZ_East_China_Sea.jpg). What happens when AIDZ overlap? There are no institutions to adjudicate a breaching of the declared zones.
ReplyDeleteChina and Japan already have a historically tumultuous relationship. I think in the last 50 years, this underlying animosity may have been overshadowed by other important international events. When looked at through a historical perspective, this tension between China and Japan is not surprising. This does not, however, mean that it is entirely unconcerning. I think that China is doing a bit of posturing here with the no-fly zone and is trying to flex its muscles for the international community. Clearly, the US and its allies will not cooperate with this behavior. While China may just be experimenting with how far it can push its power, it should also recognize this is a dangerous game to play if a conflict starts with Japan, which would have international repercussions.
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting to see how this plays out. I don’t really think that this will escalate to war, but it’s a possibility. China will just continue to use this force as they get more and more rich. I, however, side with China in this confrontation because the islands were China’s property before the Japanese invasion. Even if one country gets the islands over the other, I could see the tension increasing exponentially between the two countries.
ReplyDeleteOne could interpret China's actions through the "diversionary war" lens: domestic concerns are masked by the prospect of an "external threat". I think the government undoubtedly benefits from creating a common enemy out of Japan as it creates solidarity and temporarily diverts the public's attention from domestic social stresses and concerns. If looking at Sino-Japanese relations as a bargaining game, China has upped the ante by establishing an air-defense identification zone that includes the islands. Now it is up to Japan to make the next move.
ReplyDeleteThis whole conflict is very interesting to me, because seems that there must be an ulterior motive to want claim to this land. It seems that these two countries are trying to strong arm one another and set precedence on who is more influential for any future conflict. It may be a small conflict; however, I can see this conflict escalating because how hard headed each of these states are. I am very interested to see how this entire thing unfolds in the future.
ReplyDeleteI have also blogged about this conflict and find it to a great example in international signaling in conflict bargaining. I must add to your statement of the motives behind China and Japan in stating that it is believed that these Senkaku Islands are rich in natural resources. I personally believe that the conflict is a result of a mix between wanting these islands for strategic positioning and resource acquirement as well as both countries' history of being stubborn to concede to one another. Regardless, this conflict has undoubtedly escalated in a concerning way. Militarized conflict could constitute U.S. involvement in favor of the Japanese. This would be a sticky situation considering the U.S.'s economic relationship with China. Although I can foresee further costly signaling from Japan and China, I predict that the U.S. will do what it can to honor its alliance with Japan while trying to solve the conflict diplomatically.
ReplyDeleteVery interesting article Tanner, I was actually unaware of the problem. The situation is definitely touchy. It most definitely is a showing of strengths and weaknesses as you said. Both China and Japan are waiting for either some incident to happen that will provoke conflict or for either one of them to give ownership of the islands over to the other. Im curious to see what happens and hope conflict between the two will be non-existent but I'm dubious.
ReplyDeleteWhat I think is extremely interesting about this issue is that the Senkaku Islands technically belong to Japan, but with the new "emergency defensive measures" the sovereignty of both nations are both in question. What stands out is that Japan is frustrated by their airspace being restricted and forced to follow Chinese defense measures, while the Chinese government makes no further suggestion that it will attempt to exacerbate the region. In this case, I find it surprising that the Chinese government does not take responsibility or control of the land, but claims that plane flying within the region around the Senkaku Islands.This either seems to present the Chinese government containing an extreme paranoia of outsiders, or a general push to increase its power, sovereignty, and leverage around the world. Inevitably, this seems to be extremely interesting since it is difficult to value the importance of an uninhabited region in comparison to another countries soft power.
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