Ukraine is facing its biggest crisis since the Orange Revolution in 2004. Tempers have flared in Kiev amongst the oppositional party because they say their offices have been raided by police, ordered by the President. President Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign a treaty with the EU, and is leaning towards a Russian led economic union. There is a sense of corruption amongst the political leaders. Protesters are demanding a reelection to dismantle Yanukovych and his party, saying he is bowing to russian interest. Much hatred towards Putin has risen for the Ukrainian people, Sparking protesters to riot in Independence Square. "We call on people to stand their ground, and peacefully, without using force or aggression, to defend their right to live in a free country," said heavyweight boxing champion Vitaly Klitschko, who has emerged as one of the leaders of the protests. There have been clashes between protesters and the riot police, yet none of the skirmishes escalated too immensely. The Lenin statue standing in the City Center was taken down and divvied up amongst protesters, who want the government to embrace the West, in particular the EU.
It's clear that the Ukrainian people want independence from Russia, but how can they do that with their very own president acting like Vladimir Putin's puppet? Yanukovych isn't ready to give up the economic ties of the East, mainly Russia, but the people are demanding the democratic, economic ties of the West, mainly the EU, as I stated above. The last time the Ukrainian people rose up against the government, they became a democratic republic. I think if something isn't done soon to resolve the issues at hand, there could well be a full blown revolution that possibly extends beyond Ukrainian borders to defend against the clutches of Putin's Russia.
BBC News- Ukraine Crisis Explained
Ukraine police move in on protesters and opposition party
EU-Russia Battleground
The latests developments in Ukraine's long transition towards liberal, capitalist democracy are troubling, but not because Ukraine has become any more illiberal. The current regime leader, President Yanukovych, originally came to power through systematically rigged elections. His predecessor used similar tactics. Though his election rigging sparked the Orange Revolution in 04, it is widely believed that election rigging continues unabated. This was not the first time evidence has surfaced of Yanukovych's regime employing repressive tactics against the opposition. What is unique, and alarming, about the latest developments is Yanukovych's conspicuous pivot towards Russia away from the EU. Before this turn, Yanukovych and his regime were committed to economic development and to what was best for Ukraine. Under his rule, GDP hs grown at an annualized 7%. As further proof of his once clear dedication to the best interests of the Ukranian people, during his time as leader Yanukovych has engaged in multiple heated disputes with Putin and the state-owned energy firm Gazprom over the extortionary prices it was charging the nation for its energy. After these latests developments, many fear Yanukovych's turn away from EU towards a resurgent Russia may ultimately end in Ukraine becoming a vassal of Moscow yet again. This is undoubtedly in Putin's plans. The question is: have Yanukovych and the Ukrainian oligarchs joined his team?
ReplyDeleteThere is a love-hate relationship between the Ukraine and Russia. On the one hand, they need Russia in terms of trade and economic intertwinement. Yanukovich mentioned that they need to ensure trade relations with Russia for the future. On the other hand, Russia could stifle their economic growth. The protestors argue a pro-EU economic policy is pertinent for the future. This current crisis has already put a negative stronghold on the economy. According to BBC, they are on the brink of bankruptcy. The cost of ensuring Ukrainian debt rose to the highest levels in 4 years as well as the price of bonds fell sharply. It is advantageous for Yanukovich to make swift decisions and concessions before the problem gets worse or the economy further declines.
ReplyDeleteI hate to say it but the only option for the Ukrainian people seems to be a full-scale revolution. Calling for a reelection or a step down from power by Yanukovych would be a naive and useless act. If Ukraine were to hold new elections what is to stop Yanukovych and his Party of Regions from rigging the elections like whit describes? Additionally, if Yanukovych were to step down from power what's to say that due to the political corruption in the country and the influence of Putin would bring about a more competent leader? This brings up the question of the strength of institutions in a state as the foundation for democracy. Does Ukraine have institutions strong enough to resist political influence from Russia, I think based off of the article as well as whit, and Rebecca's posts, we can agree that they do not. It takes a powerful force to change an institution and in Ukraine's case I feel the only way they will be able to restructure the country's institutions to harbor democracy is through a revolution.
ReplyDeleteUkraine has been in a difficult situation for quite some time. It is obvious that the people want to align with the EU but because Russia has a significant amount of power over energy supplies to Ukraine, even if Yanukovych wanted to align with the EU, Russia would not allow it. Cutting of natural gas and oil pipelines could have devastating effects. If I had to make a guess about the future of this movement, I would say that unless Yanukovych suppresses this movement, it may either turn violent or into another revolution.
ReplyDeleteI agree that, sadly, it appears that one of the only options the Ukrainian people have is to launch a full-scale rebellion/revolution in order to dismantle their corrupt leaders and get what they want. Although I believe that the calling for a reelection is an attempt at keeping the peace and appearing fair, I don't think it is ultimately going to get the people what they desire. I think in order to get large scale change, large scale action must take place, and unfortunately for the people of Ukraine, this may mean taking charge and gaining the power they believe they deserve.
ReplyDeleteAs Anastasia said, large scale change is accompanied by large scale action. However, I think that rebellion of the military variety is not necessarily the solution. I feel that a peaceful movement or a nonaggressive rebellion often lends infinitely more credibility to a cause and draws more support from the international community (the EU most importantly). This is an event I wasn't following at all but I'm very interested after reading your post. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteI'm glad Matt brought up the lack of powerful institutions. It's hard to imagine a protest of this magnitude in the UK or the US. I have to give it to these protesters, though. The weather is terrible but they are still going strong. I doubt anyone else thought it was cool, but I appreciated George Clooney's video applauding the protesters. I always appreciate when people use their celebrity to bring attention to international issues, particularly when it comes to issues of democracy. The more international attention this protest receives, the more pressure will be put on Yanukovych; hopefully before a full scale revolution is necessary.
ReplyDeleteI think that the Ukrainian people definitely feel passionately about this and therefore will continue their protests and demonstrations, regardless of the repercussions. However, there will most likely continue to a heavy police response to this, like the mass arrests which occurred yesterday. Hopefully, the people and the government can find a peaceful solution.
ReplyDeleteGreat article Dylan. Ukraine is definitely in quite a predicament. With President Viktor Yanukovych suckling on Vladimir Putin's metaphorical breast, how are Ukrainian people to get 'independence' from Russia and begin embracing economic ties with the West? Im quite interested to know if a re-election is even possible? I'm thinking that the only way to possibly separate from Russia and changing the government is by having a full rebellion by the Ukrainian people. Unfortunately this would most likely lead to casualties but if the Ukrainian people feel strongly about the cause then they should initiate. Even if they do run a successful rebellion, Ukraine is pretty dependent on Russia so it will definitely cause some issues.
ReplyDeleteI think the issues within Ukraine are extremely interesting and thought provoking! Especially since protesters have been removed twice from the square, but have returned. According to the New York Times, thousands of riot police officers and Interior Ministry troops mobilized in order to break through barricades that surrounded Independence Square, which was followed by bulldozers and other types of heavy equipment to scare protesters that were camping around the area. After the security forces regained control of City Hall, they withdrew at 10:30 a.m. that morning. This abrupt withdrawal seems to bring into question President Yanukovych's desires and plans on handling the crisis, which has grown increasingly unpredictable.
ReplyDeleteInterestingly, the European Union's foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, American Assistant Secretary of State, Victoria Nuland, and American Secretary of State John Kerry have quickly responded to the crisis in Ukraine, showing this is of serious international interest. For example, Mr. Kerry has expressed "disgust" at the Ukrainian government's treatment of the protesters, whereas Ms. Nuland has stated in a meeting with Mr. Yanukovich that "[she] made it absolutely clear to him that what happened last night [Dec. 10] is absolutely impermissible in a European state, in democratic state."
Thus, it is not surprising U. S. State Department Spokeswoman Jen Psaki, stated "all policy options, including sanctions are on the table, in our view, but obviously that is still being evaluated." This is probably of great importance for the Ukrainian government, since many foresee the country defaulting on its sovereign debt in the next two months without any clear funding outside of the country.
Therefore, this issue could bring forth even greater economic issues an instability with the current Ukrainian government. Joining the EU would be ideal for lower interest rates to cover the Ukrainian government's borrowing, and Ukraine still has the ability reverse its actions and avoid serious political and economic ramifications. Hopefully, President Yanukovich is truthfully open to negotiating as he has stated in earlier announcements.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/12/world/europe/police-storm-kiev-square-as-crisis-grows.html?pagewanted=2&_r=0&rref=world&hpw
DeleteI have recently been following this and reading up on the ongoing issues in Ukraine, and reading this post and these comments have been really interesting. Ukraine is not a country that I have ever looked at much in any sense, but I do find it interesting that this turn towards Russia is happening, especially after the less than perfect relations between them in the past. This is definitely a topic I will be following to see where it heads. It will be interesting to see how this is resolved, whether through sanctions from the international community or if it will be taken care of internally and cleanly, and if the option of joining the EU even remains on the table after this.
ReplyDeleteI agree with above, that the people of Ukraine have to take matters into their own hands. Something has to be done and if the people want to be in the EU, then they have to eliminate the current Govt and the leaders that are sitting in it now. The corruption goes too deep and even is at the head, the Presidential level with their President Yanukovych. This country is at a very important decision point and need to act before the EU loses all interest in them. Even if joining the EU disappears a country shouldn't function like they are now. They should fight and take back what is theirs and try for a fresh start with a new Govt.
ReplyDeleteThis is definitely a sad situation; the people of Ukraine are ready to embrace the western economic influence that their country needs. The President is acting selfishly by looking instead to Russia. While Putin has offered a substantial financial reward to Ukraine if they intertwine economies, an agreement with the EU is substantially better in the long run. At the same time, this could be beneficial: If the Ukrainian president ignores the EU and turns instead to Russia, the people of Ukraine have sufficient motivation to remove him with a vote of no confidence.
ReplyDeleteI'm not certain what's meant by "full scale rebellion," as I would consider these protests very powerful. It's nonviolent action by a large and diverse polity and has already prompted defection among the elite; the chief of police in Kiev resigned, and still unconfirmed but likely, Yakunovych's chief of staff also resigned. The people are talking to the police and sharing chocolate with them; the allegiance of the police can probably make or break the success of this protest. According to Maria Stephan and Erica Chenoweth, campaigns with loyalty shifts tend to succeed 60% more often. Maybe there's a future for more defection and isn't that all that's really needed ?
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't be so quick as to state that the people of Ukraine as a whole, or even a majority for that matter, are in support of establishing closer ties with the EU or ousting Yanukovich. It is important to remember that public perception is largely based off of what one chooses to read, and newspapers in the US and Europe have almost exclusively been reporting on the demonstrations in Kiev. Ukraine covers a large amount of land, yet no one seems to be paying attention to what is happening inside other parts of the country. I think that if one were to travel East, they would see the exact opposite of what is occuring in Kiev-demonstrations in support of the president and a desire to obstain from establishing ties with the EU and instead join the Russian's custom union.
ReplyDeleteSo I would encourage people to first look at non-westerns news sources before making generalized statements as there is almost a blank in US media about what is occuring in Eastern Ukraine.
Its is tough to say that all of the people of Ukraine want change, it is just seems that only a portion of one city that is pro western society. However the best way to determine how the country should be governed and whom they align with would be to have free and fair elections, I just do not see that happening with Russian influence, because there sphere of influence could possibly be made smaller.
ReplyDeleteWho knows what the Ukranian people really want? Putin and Yanukovych say one thing, the EU and the United States say and want to believe the opposite. Remember Tiananmen was well received by students, academics, a few urban unions, and others. However the protesting students failed to rally the rural peasant (the majority) to there cause. In fact most rural folk failed to grasp what was occurring and thought the dissenters to be ungrateful and spoiled. I'm not saying that the Ukrainian protesters are being foolish, but I don't think one can automatically assume this is the same sentiment shared with the rest of the country. After all Yanukovych was blatantly leaning East in his platform and election campaign. He was soundly elected in after the former liberal western leaning president was ousted for poor economic times.
ReplyDeleteThere are a lot of good reasons to join the EU. However it is winter and if your the president are you willing to have Russia shut your power off and freeze your people, likely not.