Within days of the tenth anniversary of the first “six-party” talks between South Korea, China, US, Japan, Russia, and North Korea, which aims to peacefully dismantle North Korea’s nuclear-weapons programs, satellite imagery taken on August 31st showed white steam rising from the Yongbyon nuclear complex in North Korea.
On Friday, September 20th, member states of the U.N.’s 159-nation International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) called on North Korea to “halt the restart” of a nuclear reactor at Yongbyon. The IAEA adopted a resolution by consensus that “strongly deplores” all of North Korea’s nuclear activities. They stressed their "desire for a diplomatic resolution ... so as to achieve the complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of the Korean peninsula". According to a report by the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SIAS), this reactor is capable of producing enough plutonium for a nuclear weapon a year. Economist
North Korea dismantled the Yongbyon reactor during the 2008 “six-party” talks as a confidence-builder as part of the aid deal. However, in April, other satellite imagery suggested steady progress in expanding the facility and finishing a new light-water reactor. In July, North Korea announced its intentions to keep its nuclear deterrent until Washington ends its “hostile policy” towards it. Reuters
International inspectors have not visited the site since 2008, but many experts believe the plant is outdated and incapable of producing weapons grade plutonium any time soon. However, a co-author of the SIAS report, Jeffrey Lewis, expects the North to invite inspectors soon to reveal its new capabilities. Leader Kim Jong Un is likely using the reactor restart as a bargaining chip to accept monitoring at Yongbyon in return for Foreign aid. There is speculation that North Korea has more facilities than the one in Yongbyon and can still keep many military nuclear programs secret. BBC
Since the dismantling of the nuclear reactor in 2008, the sanctions have loosened and relations have improved. The North has even received some food and medicine since. What else does Kim Jong Un have to gain through reviving nuclear tensions in the region after improving relations this summer through reopening South Korean military hotlines, a North-South joint factory complex at Kaesong on September 16th, and on September 25th, the regime will be allowing 200 relatives separated in the Korean war to meet in the North for the first time in three years? Can the North afford to lose the bargaining power a nuclear weapon can bring to the international arena? Connecting our Monday discussion on why leaders choose to go to war, why doesn’t the international community take military action and destroy the nuclear reactor?
I think that there is an aspect you are over looking, and that would be the worst case scenario of Norht Korea selling a nuclear weapon so that they can purchase some goods, however I do not believe that this would happen. I am actually thinking that it will be a bargaining chip to get more aid.
ReplyDeleteWe have also seen the North act out earlier this year and then do nothing. Maybe it is just another way of trying to gain international attention, for what reason I am not sure. Also I do not believe that North Korea is looking for conflict and I am sure the international community feels the same way, however they are unpredictable and for that reason they should have our attention. I do however agree with Stuart in that they are using it as a bargaining chip to get more aid. I guess we will see how this plays out.
ReplyDelete