Signs point to Rouhani further developing diplomatic relations with the Western nations, however it still remains a question what will happen with the nuclear program Iran has been developing and working hard to conceal from the West. Since taking office in August, President Rouhani has made strides towards improving relations with the US, exchanging letters with President Obama, meeting with Secretary of State John Kerry, and attempting to arrange a formal meeting with President Obama (NYTIMES). If the two were to meet, this would be the fist time a US President with an Iranian leader since the failed US intervention in the 1979 revolution. Rouhani, famous for his use of twitter, has temporarily unblocking western social media sites such as Twitter and Facebook in Iran. On September 18th, Rouhani arranged for the release of 11 political prisoners, and another 80 this past monday, much to the approval of the US. With regards to the Iranian nuclear program, Rouhani recently switched...
"...authority over the nuclear issue from the national security council, known for being hawkish, to the foreign ministry, which is now led by Mohammad Javad Zarif, a moderate former diplomat with deep knowledge of America." ECONOMIST
This move surprisingly was co-organized by Rouhani and the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has been largely anti-western throughout his reign as grand Ayatollah. President Rouhani asserted he would have complete authority over any decisions regarding nuclear weapons, not the Supreme Leader. In todays UN General Assembly meeting, Rouhani stated that Iran posed “absolutely no threat to the world or region," asserting nuclear weapons had "no place in Iran's security and defense doctrine," and denounced international sanctions as "violent, pure and simple," (BBC NEWS). President Rouhani all but agreed to full transparency of their nuclear program in his recent interactions with the West. With these developments, the future of US-Iranian diplomatic relations looks far brighter than it has since the 1979 revolution. However, it remains to be seen what influence Supreme Leader Kahmenei has over Rouhani's presidency. Furthermore, the west was hopeful after the election of Ahmadinejad because he was not an overly religious candidate, however US-Iranian relations largely deteriorated during his presidency.
To begin with this blog post I would like to say I have high hopes for the coming relations with Iran. This comes in stark contrast with the relationship we held with Iran only a few months when Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu applied pressure on the United States to engage in physical strikes over there nuclear program. Although Netanyahu remains cynical on a relationship with Iran, President Obama in a speech he gave to the UN General Assembly today expressed a new hopeful relationship Iran and its moderate president Rouhani. Obama's comments suggested a future lift on sanctions and a diplomatic relationship with Iran not seen since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Most important for the for see able future involving democratic relations between Iran and the US is Rouhani's moderate stance and the moving of the nuclear program out of the National Security Councils hands.
ReplyDeleteEarlier in the presidency of Ahmadinejad tensions between the US and Iran hit one of the lowest points in decades. Heavy sanctions were placed on the Iranian economy and Israel hawkishly promoted force against the nation to halt its nuclear ambitions. But president Ahmadinejad unlike president Rouhani promoted a position of agitation for Israel both emotionally and as a regional counter balance. By using MAD defense strategy Ahmadinejad heavily pursued nuclear weapons as a measure of deterrence against Israel and the nuclear stockpile they already posses. This was seen by western nations as a move to prompt a nuclear arms race within the region. But if Rouhani can gain a solid peace agreement with the US defensive nuclear weapons may not pose as much of as necessity and instead improved foreign relation could be used to drive Iran economy out of the gutter.
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/9/24/obama-says-iraniannuclearissuecanberesolvedpeacefully.html
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2013-09/25/c_132747521.htm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24235932
ReplyDeleteNuclear diplomacy is the concept of foreign officials agreeing (or disagreeing) on the states production or supply of nuclear weapons. Historically, as Anders has shown, the United States-Iran relations have been volatile since the late 1970's. Obama is cautiously approaching the situation of Rouhani's newfound "conciliatory words" that, as our President asserts, must be "matched by actions that are transparent and verifiable." (Pace Article) Nuclear talks would encourage a healing relationship between the countries. Unfortunately, he much anticipated U.N. informal meeting between Obama and Rouhani fell through and never occurred as was rumored to do so. As for other Western nations, the French President Hollande met with Rouhani to secure the idea of the French intolerance towards nuclear weapons. I conclude that these international diplomatic conversations are positive, promising, and will presumably promote nuclear disarmament in countries that are unsafe to house them.
Mason, Jeff, and Yeganeh Torbati. " Obama pledges diplomacy with Iran; no Rouhani meeting| Reuters." Breaking News, Business News, Financial and Investing News & More | Reuters.co.uk. N.p., n.d. Web. 25 Sept. 2013. .
Pace , Julie, and Edith Lederer . "Obama, Rouhani Back Resumption of Nuclear Talks - ABC News." ABCNews.com - Breaking News, Latest News & Top Video News - ABC News. N.p., n.d. Web. 25 Sept. 2013. .
I wonder whether Rouhani has as much political power as he suggests. It would be great if he could single handily dismantle the nuclear program, but unfortunately the truth is that the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei truly has control. It seems strange that Khamenei would suddenly change his actions with Iran's nuclear program and his attitude towards the west. There always remains the possibility that this new rhetoric from the Iran's government helps the country bide time to build up weapons. This is important for the US since such actions could endanger Israel, their biggest partner in the region. In my opinion the US should remain weary about the rhetoric coming from Rouhani until there is better proof to back up his claims that Iran's nuclear program is not for nuclear weapons.
ReplyDeleteIn Obama's speech addressing the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday, Obama "embraced a diplomatic opening to Iran, saying he had instructed Secretary of State John Kerry to begin high-level negotiations on its nuclear program." This being a step forward in US Iran relations, Hassan Rouhani replied to Obama's outreach by agreeing with this idea of diplomacy, but also arguing that Iran would insist on its right to enrich uranium. He warned Obama to "resist influence from 'warmongering pressure groups.'” It is also really interesting to note that when given the opportunity, Rouhani refused to shake President Obama's hand saying it could be too "provocative" for the politics back home. This is a really good example of two level games in the sense that there are both international and domestic factors that act as constraints on leaders. These constraints can limit freedom in negotiation, but can also be viewed as positive in the sense that it allows the ability to tie hands like we discussed in class. The way this situation is developing is really interesting and will definitely be important to follow up with.
ReplyDeleteNew York Times article: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/25/us/politics/obama-iran-syria.html
An update on the ever-changing situation:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24304088