But there is one obstacle that stands in the way of this agreement. While the US government and Afghan governments have reached an agreement, the agreement needs to be approved by a loya jirga, or a tribal council. It will be interesting to see whether or not the tribal council will approve of this since they have posed as obstacles in the past to US policy in Afghanistan.
Another obstacle that this agreement is yet to address is the growing poppy trade in Afghanistan. Since 2002, the US has spent $7 billion trying to fight the ballooning narcotics industry. But this money has not been of much use. It is estimated that about 154,000 hectares are used to harvest poppy in Afghanistan. A Pentagon report to Congress reported that the 2013 harvest of poppy was going to be "considerably larger" than the harvest of 2012.
So what will happen once US troops drop to 13,000? The obvious answer is that the poppy trade will continue to grow. After all, this is the livelihood of many rural Afghans. But before we even reach that point, it will be interesting to see whether the loya jirga will approve of the long term security pact. After all, many of the representatives of the loya jirga come from areas where poppy is harvested. So what effects do you think the US troop withdrawal will have on the poppy trade?
Sources: As U.S. withdraws from Afghanistan, poppy trade it spent billions fighting still flourishes.
Kerry: U.S., Afghanistan agree on security pact
Afghanistan-U.S. reach draft security agreement.
As was earlier stated poppy production is likely to rise, however eventual production would have to peak out. Either that or the entire world is addicted to heroin. Demand for the drug will eventually even out as those who want to do it will find a way. Eradication campaigns in South American countries such as Colombia and Bolivia have often proved to be ineffective or even harmful to the local peaceful populace. Concurrently the campaigns have often forced producers to flee however production spreads as well to neighboring regions or countries doing more harm than good.
ReplyDeleteThe United States should focus domestically on preventing drug use and dealing with those who are addicted. While in Afghanistan attempt replace poppy production with viable alternative cash crops, or saffron could get a lot cheaper. I hate to say just let the stuff grow, but little up to now has been effective. Not to mention the US is always trying to win the hearts and minds of the people in Afghanistan, to go and destroy a cash crop that yes funds terrorism and is created into a bad illicit drug. Yet it is still the crop that many peaceful individuals make a living on, demanded for foreign consumption. Therefore creating a dilemma, the international community doesn't want to see poppy production and Afghans need to eat. Alternative then must be provided.
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ReplyDeleteIt is stories like this that really make me wonder how we were ever supposed to succeed. Sure if we could destroy all crops then the heroin trade stops. But they we just destroyed the livelihood of the farmers growing the poppy. I for one would advocate destroying the poppy then trying to get other crops growing.
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ReplyDeleteThis story literally gives me no faith. I really do believe that we need to pull troops out of Afghanistan. We have been there way to long and how I've said before is that the U.S cannot be the world police. We need to stop focusing on petty issues such as poppy crops in Afghanistan, and put more money and funds to stop drug trafficking in our own country. Just because Afghanistan has poppy plants doesn't make it a terrorist attack and that everyone is going to be drug addicts because Afghanistan is growing poppy plants. There are so many other countries that grow narcotics, why do we have to single out Afghanistan? Lets take steps in the United States first to stop drug abuse and the selling of narcotics, before we use military force in another country.
ReplyDeleteThis story literally gives me no faith. I really do believe that we need to pull troops out of Afghanistan. We have been there way to long and how I've said before is that the U.S cannot be the world police. We need to stop focusing on petty issues such as poppy crops in Afghanistan, and put more money and funds to stop drug trafficking in our own country. Just because Afghanistan has poppy plants doesn't make it a terrorist attack and that everyone is going to be drug addicts because Afghanistan is growing poppy plants. There are so many other countries that grow narcotics, why do we have to single out Afghanistan? Lets take steps in the United States first to stop drug abuse and the selling of narcotics, before we use military force in another country.
ReplyDeleteYeah it would be interesting to see how the tribal council responds. I for one am all for it. Why do we need 60,000 of our US troops in Afghanistan? However, I’m not very surprised that Afghanistan keeps turning back to the poppy industry for profits, considering most of their natural resources for crops are pretty slim. Of course the poppy industry would flourish with decreasing numbers of US troops on their soil. Maybe it might become an even bigger problem. When all is said and done, I just think it’s a bigger concern for us to get a good majority of our troops out of there.
ReplyDeleteSince a lot of the representatives of the Ioya Jirga come from the areas where the poppy fields are harvested, I fear their decision in the long term security pact. Our troops need to be pulled out of Afghanistan immediately. I think it's ridiculous that we act like the police of the world in matters so insignificant. Granted, drugs are not an insignificant matter but drugs being harvested in Afghanistan shouldn't be taken care of by the United States military. I just don't get why we would spend $7 billion to try and fight narcotics in Afghanistan when we have huge budgeting issues here in America. It may seem selfish but we need to stop worrying about other country's issues and focus on ours.
ReplyDeleteI think that the U.S. withdrawal will ultimately hurt the poppy trade in Afghanistan. Since the turn of the 21st century, Afghanistan has been the largest supplier of poppy in the EU as well as the US. This is because NATO troops have likely been involved in facilitating the smuggling of these drugs which are worth vast amounts of money on the streets back in the west. This is an interesting and precarious situation indeed, and I would not be surprised if the tribal council attempts to maintain NATO presence in the region not only for their own security, but also in order to continue the exuberant trade of poppy with the west that brings in large amounts of capital and provides many rural farmers in Afghanistan with a sustainable source of income.
ReplyDeleteI agree with what everyone has been saying, how are we supposed to be optimistic in any way when the situation looks as it does? I think it would be hard to say that the domestic pressure is anything but towards removing as many as possible if not all troops from Afghanistan. On the flip side of that though we have this issue with the poppy production, and most people would move to the same conclusions we have about production increasing and how we could possibly deal with this as an international community without creating a huge problem with the poppy growers' need to earn livings.
ReplyDeleteNo matter the amount of the troops, I believe that production of poppy will still continue. As Harshaw pointed out, it is important that countries in which trade is taking place, take measures domestically in order to stop the spread and use of these narcotics. Growing poppy is easy and very profitable for Afghan people, long term commitment toward rebuilding Afghan government and institutions might be the way to go. The moment narcotics demand starts reducing is when Afghan people will start looking into other ways of making a living.
ReplyDeleteUnless the Afghani people are provided with an alternate way to make and living and survive, the growth of the poppy trade with most likely continue to grow. The local population of a country will often do whatever it takes to survive, even if we would consider it to be elicit. People in the drug trade itself also have an incentive to make sure Afghan poppy production continues. In this case, it seems unlikely that US action will have any lasting effect in decisions concerning the poppy trade.
ReplyDeleteThe growth of poppy seed is going to continue to grow and be a major source of income for these people and even harder to stop the industry. The region continues to present new difficult opportunities for the U.S. to control and eventually defeat.
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