A little over a month ago I blogged about tensions between China and Japan centered around the territorial dispute of uninhabited islands. Since then there have been some interesting developments in the situation. I believe it will be interesting to look at the predictions I made in my first blog and see how they are holding up to the actual events. Here is the original blog along with some predictions I made concerning the future of the dispute.
I personally believe that the United States' involvement in the Asia Pacific and, specifically, in Japan may be enough to deter China from escalating the dispute. Although China is not happy about the U.S. support of Japan, I doubt China wants to spark an armed conflict that may potentially call for U.S. intervention. I also believe the U.S. has more incentive to support Japan due to its security alliance.
I see Abe holding firm on Japan's territorial claim of the Senkaku islands.
China is still consistently making itself present in the disputed area. In response to these continued threats, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe approved a defense plan that will allow Japanese air forces to shoot down Chinese unmanned aircraft in Japanese air space. China's Defense Ministry responded saying that shooting down any of China's aircraft will constitute provocation or an act of war.
While the dispute continues to rage on, Japan took to YouTube to establish its rightful ownership of the Senkaku islands. This, unsurprisingly, brought more criticism from China.
Abe is yet to stand down on his statement of Japanese ownership of the Senkaku islands. Recently in a Wall Street Journal, the Prime Minister claimed that Japan will take a more assertive role in Asia to counter Chinese power.
With the non-violent conflict continuing to escalate, expectations of armed combat are increasing. One thing is for sure, whatever the outcome is there will undoubtedly be a change in the balance of power. Whether China or Japan gives in or they both resort to conflict and a winner emerges the power structure in the Asia Pacific will still be affected.
Coming back to my original predictions about the situation, I'm starting to believe that maybe the potential involvement of the U.S. is of no concern to China. Or maybe China is convinced that the U.S. will not intervene. Even with the U.S. expressing their support of Japanese ownership of the islands, China still continues to escalate the dispute. I am also becoming less convinced that the U.S. will jump into the conflict should it become violent. Recent statements from the U.S. seem to try to border on neutrality while also giving a little support to Japan. There also seems to be some hesitation when considering whether to go to war alongside Japan should China attack. My prediction of Abe's resolve is still reasonable. This is especially seen in his unwavering responses to further Chinese threats.
It's tough to guess what will happen, but armed conflict looks like a much more likely outcome than it did a month ago. How do you think the situation has changed and how do you think the conflict will be played out now?
At first glance I was quite baffled as to why Japan and China were feuding over these little islands. But after further research, it turns out that these islands might have oil reserves under them. But even then, these islands are uninhabited and I cannot see this conflict going to war. I believe that both leaders are not backing down in an attempt to please their winning coalitions. We also have to look at the long and bitter history between Japan and China. Japan was the once uncontested power in the region, but now, with China's rise, Japan's power is being contested. Because of this, I can see why Japan is not backing down (historically powerful and doesn't want to show that they are declining) and China (rising power, wants to show that it will no longer be bullied by Japan). I think we might see this conflict drag on with lots of brash statements, but hopefully, nothing will come of it.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Luis in the sense that I cannot see this conflict escalating to war. This is, however, an issue that can't be ignored by the international community. I don't think action needs to be taken at this point, because it seems like there is a lot of talk between Japan and China but nothing too serious has happened at this point. It is also interesting to think about how the US would react if this conflict were to escalate militarily. With economic interdependence with China and peace treaties with Japan, the US is in a difficult predicament. How would the US react if it were to escalate?
ReplyDeleteThanks for posting on something other than the Middle East. (No offense to those who have posted otherwise). I find the Sankaku island debacle fascinating, but I wouldn't go so far as to jump the gun on a potential large scale war between the two powers? Just to turn to territorial disputes elsewhere, they are often not full blown war, but border/guerrilla/terrorist spurts and skirmishes against the other country. Isreal and Palestine, Pakistan and India, either wars or just fighting, each side has a lot to loose if the other brings the war to their home front.
ReplyDelete1.Yes, China still holds resentment towards the Japanese over the Rape of Manchuria and supposed unpaid reparations to the survivors
2.Just an excerpt from Forbes magazine on non-violent methods of punishment...."China is going to retaliate, probably massively, against Japanese business interests. It must be profoundly feared that the economic damage will be severe and prolonged."
Beyond just battles....economic cuts might end up hurting Japan even deeper than say shots across the border.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenharner/2012/09/11/japans-future-depends-on-china-this-is-the-real-danger-in-the-territorial-dispute/
Although we cannot see this dispute resulting in a large scale war, it is not an unreasonable thought. I'm not too good at history, but how many times have we seen large scale wars over territory? I personally think you bring up an excellent point that armed conflict appears more likely than it did even a month ago. That observation alone shows how quickly the seriousness of a situation can change.
ReplyDeletePlus this is a really well written blog post! I'm glad you were able to follow-up on your first post and incorporate it here, because I have not been keeping up with current events in Asia and as Ray pointed out, we probably should be.