In the past three days, the US and Iran have communicated more than they have in the past thirty years. This first started with the UN General Assembly in which President Obama and Hassan Rouhani both addressed the UN. According to The Economist "he noted the two leaders’ assurances that Iran will never develop nuclear weapons, and briskly called for conciliatory words to be matched with “transparent and verifiable actions”. Obama gave this statement in front of Iran and the UN and it pointed to something that just recently came up in class about audience costs. Obama calls for verifiable actions which we referred to as signals and more specifically signaling resolve. Iran needs to be held accountable for their statements about nuclear weapons about having them and their stance on the world's plan for having nuclear weapons. Iran needs to somehow signal to the US and the rest of the world that they are serious about not having or making nuclear weapons. The history between Iran and the US is shaky at best and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani expresses concern by stating:
"I begin by being very skeptical because of the history, because they played us for a fool before, Rouhani actually even bragging about it. I have to look at that history and say, there’s a really good chance they’re doing it again. At the same time, you can go ahead and talk to them and you can go ahead and try to test this out and see is there a change."
Giuliani is saying that Iran has not been able to give credible signals in the past which is why Obama and his administration need to be cautious in trusting what Iran says. On the other hand of this struggle the US and the rest of the world need to be able to signal their resolve if Iran does not come up with an adequate solution or plan by October 15th when they meet with the P5+1 nations.
President Rouhani called President Obama before he left the US inquiring about making a deal with the world powers about Iran's nuclear program. The phone call is the first communications between leaders of both nations in thirty years which begs the question, is Iran serious about making deal with the world powers about their nuclear program? This phone call was brought up earlier in Crystal Schablitsky's blog post entitled How Genuine Is Iran? Crystal brings up many good points in her post about how this attempt by Iran to communicate with the US brings fear to Israel, which is a great point. Israel's fear shows that the US is not the only country that is weary about Iran's intentions. The US and Iran need make some signal about intentions and causality of those intentions combined with the causality of not meeting those intentions. The US and Iran have had an adverse relationship for decades now and there seems to be no improvement, so what kind of signals of resolve or signals of cooperation could each country make that would show to each other and the rest of the world that this can be a positive relationship?
Great post topic. I'm probably not the only one that is shocked by Iran's new found interest in cooperation. It seems that the sanctions may have brought Iran to a breaking point. Also, earlier today, Israel's Netanyahu called Rouhani "a sheep in wolf's clothing" in front of the UN General Assembly. I feel that the US might share the same sentiments. To answer your question, Iran would have to make some very serious signals to show that they are willing to improve relations. They would have to give proof that they are shutting down their nuclear program and are willing to end their support the Assad regime in Syria. But I don't see these things happening anytime soon. Because of this, I would have to say that Rouhani is bluffing and only wants international sanctions loosened.
ReplyDeleteAlong with the majority of American political leaders, I too find this claim by Iranians to be quite questionable. The so-called "fatwa" has been in talks for just about eight years now, so it does seem a bit strange for it be coming out now. A statement of this nature that is endorsed by President Obama would put Iran in a much better light politically but what could that entail? The Middle East Research Institute stated as of yesterday, "There is no such fatwa. It is a lie from the Iranians, a deception. And it is tragic that Obama has endorsed it." Like Luis said, it is going to take much more than just a simple claim to make this proposition believable. There would have to, at the very least, be transparency in the process of the shutdown.
ReplyDeleteGreat topic to post about! When it comes to this topic, skepticism pumps through my veins with unparalleled ardor. Much of my skepticism stems not from Rouhanni particularly, but from historical narrative. I find it hard to believe that after decades of defiance on this issue, and several hard years under heavy sanctions, that Iran NOW finds it opportune to completely reverse its rhetoric. However, not wanting to sound a cynic, I do see different posture from this new administration and find its early signs encouraging. Public bargaining on this issue is risky for the United States, as they stand to lose face should they make too many statements and promises too quickly.
ReplyDeleteThe fact that Iran is willing to cooperate must be a pretty big boost for our government as well as a a shock/sign of relief for people who are following along with the issue. Every country can only withstand so long, and the sanctions that were placed upon them, must have been the tip of the iceberg before getting them to fall under the pressure. There is still a lot of areas in which Iran must prove they are actually willing to cooperate, but this is a huge step in itself. One way in which they can do so would be shut down their nuclear program to start. This is very wishful thinking, but I would say that things are slowly moving in the right direction.
ReplyDeleteI encourage everyone to read the previous blog post on China restricting trade with North Korea if they continue with their Nuclear Weapons programs. I agree with this previous blog post that this move by China caused there to be increased pressure on Iran to comply with the United States and other nations. However, I am skeptical that they are actually going to comply or simply drag their feet to comply...Iran may be feeling the international pressure to comply, but I doubt that they will be rushing to stop their nuclear program...
ReplyDeleteI think a new generation who have not lived with the tension of what happened in the 1970's or rallied around Khomaini's vision of anti-western ideology is the key in forming new forms of cooperation with the US. I'm not saying this will be an over night achievement but these small steps are what is needed to finally end this tension that has lasted for over 40 years.
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