Monday, October 21, 2013

American Red Cross Hostages

As the United States’ government shutdown and debt ceiling have been postponed, it is time to return to the extreme political unrest and conflict within Syria. More specifically, it is time to directly examine the international community’s relationship to the three remaining International Red Cross volunteers that were taken hostage by Syrian opposition activists. Although the fate of the three remaining Red Cross hostages continue to be unclear, it is likely their detainment by rebel forces could invoke the international community, and force the Syrian opposition to lose some of its legitimacy or international appeal. Consequently, this lose of this legitimacy could influence the international community to pursue direct intervention within the Syrian civil war or possibly influence conflict in the late future, should the rebel forces win. 

Recently, Syria has become increasingly prone to kidnappings and other incidents involving international or foreign aid workers, which coincidentally is during the same time a humanitarian situation is beginning to reach a point of no return. However, this situation in particular can become extremely influential in eliminating rebel forces. This is because the seven Red Cross workers that were originally seized on Sunday, October 13, 2013, outside the town of Sarqeb, a city within Syria’s northwestern province of the Idlib was manned by an al-Qaeda affiliate, which could inevitably benefit the Assad regime. Currently, Assad’s Syrian government has used “terrorists” as a blanket term for all opposition forces, which has gained the dictator some political appeal internationally. This identification has been reinforced across cities, regions, and countries, since as reporters have begun to identify Syrian opposition as terrorist groups, which is clearly seen in a Lebanese newspaper that described, “an armed terrorist group… kidnapped a number of workers in the mission of the International Committee of the Red Cross in Syria.” Obviously, if the Syrian Opposition continues to associate with Al-Qaeda an international response will be necessary in order to prevent extreme religious groups from taking power. Since Al-Qaeda has been seen as one of the greatest threats to western-democratic safety and security, the fact that Al-Qaeda is a confirmed associate with the rebels deters much international support for the Syrian rebels movement towards a more democratic system. Therefore, this could mean that Assad’s government is receiving a more positive outlook internationally because these “rebels” have become “terrorists,” at least in the eyes of the media. In this sense, the Red Cross hostages bring forth an international dilemma where it is difficult to truly determine the stability of the Syrian opposition, or possibly even question its stability and relationship to the rest of the world. 

These kidnappings are extremely significant and bring forth an entirely new issue when interpreting the Syrian nation. As Al Jazzeera Zeina Khodr, a reporter in Beirut, commented these kidnappings reveal there is “a lot of insecurity in the north, even though most of that area is held by the rebels.” This is probably because the current governmental forces no longer control areas such as Idlib, which have created areas where there have been absolutely no claims of responsibility within the Syrian opposition. Consequently, Jitka Korenkov for the Czech People in Need, an aid group working in Aleppo city of Northern Syria commented that “the security situation has got much worse in recent months, especially in August given the rise of the influence of extremist groups directly linked to al-Qaeda.” This has made much of the countryside in Idlib, as well as the rest of northern Syria become areas filled with Islamic extremists, and increasingly unstable, and a possible threat to international security. 

It is possible some of these groups are planning to use the hostages as leverage in bargaining or at least getting more international attention, but situations are becoming increasingly more dire for those living within the country, and international intervention seems to be an ever increasing point of consideration within the country. Kidnapping may be the first step towards international awareness and serious contemplation of retaking and reestablishing areas of regional stability. However, what is far more alarming is the fact that rebel forces are in control of specific areas, but lack organization and responsibility. This lack of stability within the rebel party has already gotten severe public criticism, but it is unlikely to seize in the near future, instead the hostage situation brings forth an even greater concern. As Turkish diplomat Ahmet Uzumcu discussed the difficulties international aid workers were having in Syria, he also mention that one chemical weapons site was left abandoned and was currently in rebel-held territory, wherein routes went through opposition-controlled areas that prevented access, due to lack of rebel cooperation. Inevitably, this implies the Red Cross hostages bring forth a breakdown of leadership and communication amongst the Syrian opposition, which is concerning if any political, religious, or extremist group possibly gained access to any chemical weapons that might be in this facility. If the hostages are beginning to show that organizations such as Al-Qaeda are becoming increasingly significant players within the Syrian civil war and unrest, the international community will have to respond in order for the global protection of world citizens. 

Therefore, conflict may escalate within the Syrian region as security with international workers increases and the power and safety of other nations is threatened. Although the current course is unclear, it seems that direct intervention may become necessary if radical or extremist groups begin to take more power in the disorganization of the Syrian opposition’s rebellion. 

4 comments:

  1. This is clearly a critical situation that is related to our class in two ways: bargaining and state credibility. As Axlerod argued, states and state actors can say one thing while doing another. The extremists responsible for the three Red Cross workers' capture are clearly unpredictable actors and cannot be trusted to act as rational actors. Syria as a state has low credibility because they have an unstable regime and cannot account for the fringe groups that are clearly powerful within the state. Therefore, bargaining with Syria in terms of chemical weapons and returning these captives is far riskier because they are unpredictable actors with a breakdown in leadership.

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  2. The conflict in Syria has been going on for two years, and the international community still cannot decide who's the bad guy. One cannot cooperate neither with Syrian government nor with Syrian opposition, because as we see both of these groups are very unpredictable and unreliable. If Al Qaeda is truly involved in Syrian conflict, I believe it would be easier and more possible for international humanitarian intervention to take place.

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  3. Syria's conflict has been extremely unpredictable for quite some time now, so I think IF the US is going to intervene, it should be sooner rather than later. With that being said, I did not feel it was in the United State's best interest to get involved, of course until Al Qaeda is going to extremes like talked about in this blog. The American Red Cross hostages just proves that the conflict is now elevating to a desperate level and all efforts to support the humanitarian intervention have failed. I think it would be much easier to dismember Al Qaeda to the best extent rather than a full Syrian intervention which would then cause a provisional government and the US would get extremely involved politically both on the federal and regional level for Syria, a method that is just too risky for american people.

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  4. I think the hardest obstacle in dealing with Syria is determining who the enemy is for the United States. Should they assist Al-Qaeda's intervention extremists or attempt to dismantle them? And if they should intervene it would be extremely difficult not to fight off Alqaeda's soldiers which would just escalate the problem to new heights. For now, time will prove to be the main actor in understanding what approach should be implied next.

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