This week, we’ve talked about reasons, micro and macro, why rebels may fight and the methods they utilize. We’ve talked a lot about Syria and Somalia, and I thought it would interest you to talk about Colombia. They’ve been in the news for the past couple of years, and recently this article in which they’ve released a hostage caught my attention . I personally believe they grabbed the hostage in genuine fear; a former U.S. marine that fought in Afghanistan just hiking in the danger zone is suspicious to a guerrilla army.
Considered by mere criminals by many, there are still quite a lot of guerrillas in this faction which would indicate that there’s something more for which they fight. The FARC has existed for 50 years. There have been peace talks in the past couple of years. I’m somewhat skeptical to these since they have twice used peace talks as a tactic to reorganize and to gain power by force. However, this time, things do seem different. In class, we’ve spoken about the importance of reciprocity and future instances in which actors would have to work together. Concerning the peace talks, land reform amounts to recognition by both sides to achieve peace, a series of issues affecting the countryside need to be addressed such as loans and technical assistance for the farmers, and making a program of land restitution, because over the years over 6 million hectares have been taken by violent means by various factions including the FARC themselves. On May 26th of this year, the FARC and government very broadly agreed on the point of land reform. As also discussed in class, Colombia has difficult geography and needs to establish the presence of the state in rural areas (which is one of the five points in the peace talks). The other points are that drug trafficking needs to stop, the issues of political participation, guarantees for safety, demobilization, and the trickiest of all is justice. Some of these guerrillas are terrorists, and FARC are considered terrorists by the U.S. This mirrors the conflict resolution aspect we’ve covered in class.
This is a chance to save lives, destruction and forced displacement of Colombians. But, why surrender? What do the FARC get out of it? Why would they commit? What incentives are there to do so? As discussed in class and acknowledged by President Santos, “It’s much easier and more popular to make war than to make peace,” which echoes the quote by Kalyvas in class about how it's 'cool' to be a rebel. How could such a sizeable group be convinced to leave behind their arms and reintegrate into society? They are already incredibly disciplined, united and able to control areas which is more than merely knowing the geography, and arguably already have their own society. According to the Americas editor, Michael Reid, of The Economist, a broad decision would have to be reached by November, otherwise they’ll get caught up in the election cycle.
A recent development has been that over the last few years, the leaders have started getting killed and captured. New intelligence and military capabilities of the government have allowed them to take out 39 leaders, (32 killed and 7 captured). The scales have been recently tipping in favor of the government, and this new variable is perhaps why the FARC is willing to put an end to the conflict. Their numbers have dwindled, however, there are estimated to be around 8000 full-time fighters and a similar number of back up militia.
Why stop? Previous governments have tried and failed at eradicating them, but is now the better chance to attempt it again? Even if there is a peace deal, will these ex-guerrillas be able to enter society?
Links:
This is a really cool link for an Organized Crime Database in Latin America and the Caribbean
Here's a really cool file that shows how it's structured compared to Colombia's military, various scenarios, aims, achievements and more: http://www.insightcrime.org/specials/farc_peace_crime.pdf
The Colombian government and the FARC have been at odds for decades, with little chance of the end in sight. They will not be able just to quit, as the money they are getting from the cocaine trafficing (mostly to the US) has sustained their power. The peace talks are merely a show to appease the international community and make it appear that the Colombian government is doing something to help stop the FARC or diminish their power. They derrive their power from the economic prosperity and continue to have the drug trade routes. It is not adventageous for the FARC to stop doing what they are doing anytime soon. As we discussed in class, a contraband conflict lasts very long. This is a good example because it is low, steady conflict between the FARC and the government that is fueled by drug money and greed. I don't see an end any time soon.
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