Civil wars are more common today than interstate wars, but they tend to destabilize the region. We can see this happening around us today and in the Arab Spring Revolutions that have swept through the Middle East. But in today’s globalized world, civil wars do not just affect the state they take place in. They tend to destabilize entire regions and drag other states into the fray. For example, After military forces loyal to Bashar Assad used chemical weapons, the United States responded by moving many missile destroyers and submarines within strike range of Syria. Russia then moved ships into position off the coast of Syria within the line of fire. Syria responded by mobilizing troops and hiding soldiers within urban areas. Posts on social media jokingly were predicting a third world war. In an Economist article, we can see that the war is Syria is already rocking the unstable foundation of Lebanon. It is important to study civil wars because they have the potential to plunge the entire region into war.
America’s hawkish attitude about intervening set the United States at odds with the rest of Security Council, with the only exception of France. The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom tried to rally support in parliament to support the United States in intervening in Syria, only to be voted down in Parliament, which was embarrassing for both the United States and for Prime Minster Cameron. This is why we must study civil war. Civil wars have the potential to drag an entire region into conflict.
Links:
- http://www.economist.com/blogs/newsbook/2013/09/syria-crisis?zid=309&ah=80dcf288b8561b012f603b9fd9577f0e
- http://www.economist.com/blogs/newsbook/2012/08/syria-and-lebanon?zid=309&ah=80dcf288b8561b012f603b9fd9577f0e
- http://www.economist.com/blogs/pomegranate/2013/09/syria-and-united-states?zid=309&ah=80dcf288b8561b012f603b9fd9577f0e
- http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21586600-deal-struck-america-and-its-allies-russia-envisages-removal?zid=309&ah=80dcf288b8561b012f603b9fd9577f0e
I agree that civil wars have the capacity to bring entire regions into conflict, however do you think that a larger interstate war could result from a civil war. It seems that it is a lot of talk and aggressive maneuvers, but not fighting yet. Could a World War 3 result from a civil war or dispute. It would be interesting to see how one could form.
ReplyDeleteYou propose an interesting question Tanner. I feel that for a civil war to escalate to something of the magnitude of World War 3 would be very possible. As Garrett pointed out, the US and other countries have the tendency to intervene probably more than they should. This brings up the interesting debate on whether or not the US and other countries were fit to intervene in issues around the world, as seen in the previous blog about US intervention in Somali. I think because civil wars have such a connection to other countries through ties such as economic trade, a larger interstate war could definitely result from a civil war.
DeleteI definitely agree that civil wars cause instability in their regions. Just look at the Arab Spring, which began in 2010 and is still going on to this day. It started in Tunisia and leaked over to Egypt, Syria, Libya, Yemen, and others. But I don't think that a civil war can cause World War 3... not yet at least. The recent crisis in Syria showed that the P5 in the Security Council can be very divided in terms of who they side with. What if it was a bigger country having a civil war? Maybe then we could see a major war starting from a civil war.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Luis. Civil wars definitely cause instability in their regions and they are, in my opinion unlikely to cause interstate wars or WWIII. After the WWII, Europe has gone through its fair share of civil conflicts and it has (almost) defined its respective territories and borders. However, in the Middle East one did not observe that. Maybe the world needs to go through another period of civil conflicts in order to regain peace again.
DeleteI agree that civil wars can have spillover effects that are quite serious and need to be considered, but in the case of the Middle East and the Arab Spring recently I do not buy in to this argument as explanatory. What we observed during the Arab Spring was a remarkable mobilization of people against social and political injustices. In a region of the world were democracy is somewhat scarce and the ability to speak one's mind hasn't always existed we saw once tragic and brave example spark the road to revolution for Tunnisia, and rather than spillover of one civil war leading to another I think inspiration can in part explain the resulting revolutions. I wouldn't claim that inspiration from the Tunisian instance could be given all the credit or even most of it, but such an action leading to tangible change at the time was something that resonated with many people all over the region. I agree very much with the fact that civil wars can lead to other bigger conflicts but I don't think a case such as Syria carries enough incentive for all parties to get so involved as to start a third world war in as much as its ability to prolong a nasty conflict between internationally backed groups.
ReplyDelete