United States Relations in Asia Pacific

U.S. relations in the Asia Pacific are growing to be more and more imperative as we observe growth in China and threats from North Korea. Currently, the U.S. has alliances with Japan and South Korea that seem to work to maintain a balance of power in the Asia Pacific region. Recent threats from North Korea pertaining to the use of nuclear weapons and China's dispute with Japan over resource-rich islands have caught the attention of the U.S. In this blog entry, I will be focusing mainly on the security alliance between Japan and the United States and the implications of China's recent endeavors in Japanese claimed territory.

After the end of World War II, Japan, with the aid of the U.S., formed a new constitution that renounced war and entitled Japan to the use of military forces only in self defense. Japan was also promised protection from the U.S. should Japan need it. This marked the beginning of the security alliance between Japan and the U.S. In recent affairs, China has been trying to claim several uninhabited islands, suspected to be rich in oil and gas, that Japan has already claimed territorial sovereignty of. Chinese patrol boats and, reportedly, surveillance drones have been seen near these islands (called the Senkaku islands by Japan). In response, Japan has also dispatched patrol boats and fighter jets to match the Chinese forces near the Senkaku islands. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan responded to the Chinese intrusion stating that Japan will not make any concessions in the territorial dispute. China also issued a statement that iterated their desire to resolve the issue peacefully but only under the condition that Japan acknowledges the Senkaku islands are under ownership dispute. So far the disagreement has not resulted in armed conflict but Abe has stated that " the islands are under the valid control of Japan" and if the conflict were to escalate he may "place government officials on the islands." 

Shinzo Abe is known for his more conservative approach in Japanese politics and his recent movements to expand the military capabilities of Japan. Abe plans to revise the Japanese constitution to expand military power in order to help the economy as well as improve security cooperation with allies like the U.S. In response to China's territory dispute, Abe also wants to expand defensive capabilities.

In addition to buying drones, Japan should also consider strengthening deterrence against ballistic missile strikes and establishing a marine forces unit to counter attacks on remote islands, according to the report. It said Japan's defense policies needed to be reviewed in the wake of North Korean missile and nuclear tests and 'China's increasing [maritime] activities in Japan's vicinity.'

With Abe's military pushes, there is perceived to be some cost to Abe in popularity among his citizens. Abe, however, plans to hold the basic structure of Japan's "defence-only policy."

In accordance with these developments in Japan, the U.S. has agreed with Japan to broaden their security alliance. This agreement will allow the U.S. to station drones in Japan and also signifies the United States' approval of Japan's expansion of defensive capabilities. Japan will be able to take on more responsibility in its own defense and the U.S. will be alleviated of some pressure in the current Asia Pacific issues. With slightly less responsibility in the Asia Pacific, the U.S. will then be able to turn more focus to internal political struggles as well as adapt to spending cuts.

It is important to note that although the U.S. has "refused to take sides in the dispute" of the Senkaku islands, Japan's control of the islands is recognized by the U.S.-Japan alliance. Thus the U.S. is obligated to "help Japan defend itself if attacked." Also, in response to North Korean threats, the U.S. has been struggling to get South Korea and Japan to form cooperative relations. This has proven to be difficult due to cultural conflicts between Japan and South Korea. However, a security alliance between South Korea, Japan, and the U.S. is seen to be imperative to the balance of power in the Asia Pacific.

Here are some important questions. How should the U.S. react to an armed conflict between China and Japan? The U.S. has very strong economical ties with China while also having an obligation to defend Japan. It seems that no matter what the U.S. would choose to do it would still step on either Japan's or China's foot. If the U.S. were to remain neutral, its ties with China would not be threatened but the U.S. would also violate its security alliance with Japan. If the U.S. were to defend Japan, the U.S. runs the risk of destabilizing its relations with China. Does Shinzo Abe's bargaining with China have a high audience cost? Expanding Japan's military in order to maintain control of the Senkaku islands may cause Abe to lose popularity, but he may also lose popularity by giving in and allowing China to seize control of the disputed islands. Could Abe's progress in militarization prove to be a strong enough signal to cause China to back down before armed conflict results? Abe's mobilization of Japan's Self Defense Forces to respond to China's intrusions may be enough to deter China from resorting to war to claim the Senkaku islands.

I personally believe that the United States' involvement in the Asia Pacific and, specifically, in Japan may be enough to deter China from escalating the dispute. Although China is not happy about the U.S. support of Japan, I doubt China wants to spark an armed conflict that may potentially call for U.S. intervention. I also believe the U.S. has more incentive to support Japan due to its security alliance. Positive relations with Japan provide the U.S. with decent ground in diffusing escalating issues in North Korea. Concerning Shinzo Abe, after making his plans for the Japanese military public, I believe he has a high audience cost in his current dispute with China. He has a lot to gain if he can prove Japan can maintain control of Senkaku islands through expanding defensive capabilities. He also has a lot to lose, in terms of popularity, if he were to back down to China after revision of the Japanese constitution's defense-only policy to expand military capabilities. Due to this high audience cost, I see Abe holding firm on Japan's territorial claim of the Senkaku islands.